At the time of this writing the following Match Odds/Moneyline (Inc. OT) were: Boston Bruins (2.34 +134) and Vancouver Canucks (1.72 -139).
Regular time match odds were: Boston Bruins (2.98 +198) and Vancouver Canucks (2.26 +126) and Tie (4.3 +330)
So this crazy series has come down to this. It’s a winner take all game in what has turned out to be one of the most brutal series in league history.
It’s been brutal in many senses of the word: on the ice, off the ice, in the league offices, in the media, and in the history books. You should know all about what’s happened so far, alleged biting, taunting, dirty plays, a unprecedented suspension, more dirty plays, more taunting, in what has become a crazy series that has been dominated by the home team. The latest incident from Game 6 is at least consistent enough with the league’s view on this series in how they have been completely hypocritical.
At the beginning of the game Johnny Boychuk hit a prone Mason Raymond, a player who didn’t have the puck into the corner fracturing his vertebrae. Sound familiar? In game 3 Aaron Rome hit Nathan Horton a player who was prone and didn’t have the puck and was given the worst suspension in Stanley Cup History finals. Either concussions are more serious than fractured vertebra or something else is going on. It’s consistent because all of the leagues actions off the ice have been consistent with their bias of wanting the Bruins to win the Cup.
They are a big American market, and a fickle one, so from their point of view it benefits the league if they win over the Canadian market, which will support the team and the league no matter what. Off the ice even media and fans have weighed on this crazy series with extremes we’ve never seen before with articles like the “Canucks are the least deserving Champions in League History”. Yes that article was actually written by a veteran NHL writer if you can believe it. A statement that basically says that a team with the best record in the NHL during the regular season, a team that staved off their nemesis in the first round in a grueling series, and a team that has overcome injuries galore to make it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final are undeserving to win the Stanley Cup. If anything, I think it’s clear that this series has officially reached its saturation point of analysis.
For Game 7 you have to look to the basics to try and figure out what’s going to happen. The home team has won every game in this series, but the games in Vancouver have been toss ups, so in that regard you’ll give the edge to Vancouver, but only slightly. In the history of Game 7’s in the Stanley Cup only 3 out of 15 have been won by the road team, so give the edge to Vancouver again. After that it’s almost impossible to analyze anything else, because now it just comes down to sheer will. There is no mental edge for either team, because it’s a Game 7, they know the Stanley Cup is coming out onto the ice no matter what. The League has made their position clear, but that shouldn’t affect the game too much, because it’s the officials that will dictate the game, and they don’t want to be a factor so they’ll probably be quite lenient. Evidence of that was shown in the Canucks Game 7 against Chicago. A series that was called quite tightly suddenly became a wide open game where players played on the edge, but were careful not to go over it because any penalty may be costly.
With those numbers the Canucks will be slight favourites everywhere. A gamble on Boston may make you some money, but perhaps a better bet would be to go for a tie, as this game has all the possibilities of being the third game 7 overtime game in League history. In both previous cases, the home team won, but would it surprise you if this game gives us something we haven’t seen yet in this wild series? Almost assuredly this may be the most watched game in the modern era of television.
Originally posted at betfair.net